Oakland Condo Inventory Tops Seven Months

Traditional wisdom is that when the market adjusts downward, the first segment of the market to feel the price drops is the condo market. Today I thought it would be illuminating to look at condo sales for July of 2006 in Oakland, to see how much the sales are off. Sure enough, the median sale price is down slighty (2.04%), from last July’s median of $393,000 to this July’s value of $385,000. On a sold price per square foot basis, however, prices are down only by a very slight margin, of .21%.

Meantime, inventory is quite high at 7.6 months, and many of the units that are for sale are expiring. Last July, five units expired versus 52 sold, for an expired to sold ratio of 9.6%. This year the numbers are 22 expireds to 37 solds, putting the ratio at 59.5%.

The average condo that sold through the MLS in July of 2006 listed for $415,837 and sold for $418,795. The median sale price was $385,00.

The Enterprise of Blogging

My visible friend, Kris Berg, recently posted an interesting article about how strongly she feels about doing her own blogging, and not doing Walmart style real estate, serving clients directly, and other similar ideas.  I find that article a handy springboard for today’s I ain’t gonna publish MLS statistics no-more no-more (at least till tomorrow) rant:  Johnnie’s love-hate relationship with real estate.

I hope Kris will remain my visible friend once she reads the dastardly revelations in this post.  I’m pretty sure she will.  First of all, if blogging is indeed group therapy, as Kris claims, then I have to be honest, or it won’t work.  At least I think that’s how you’re supposed to do group therapy.

Anyway, with this in mind, I’d like to “share something” that’s been “on my chest”.  “Let go your pain, and gain strength from the sharing…”  “You’re Vulcan???”  Oh wait, that was a movie.
Anyway, here’s my big revelation.  I love doing Walmart style real estate.  Let’s face it, I’m a total mercenary.  I think that getting to be a rainmaker, out here on the Internets (as Monseiur Colbert calls them — I mean “it”) is the best thing you can do.  Then when a home buyer or seller comes in, let a friendly and competent colleague do the work and get 75% of the commission, with a nice tasty 25% referral to Johnnie for typing his fingers to the bone.  I love Walmart.  I want to have Walmart’s babies.

Ich bin ein interloper.

My ex-interloper boss, Dave Liniger, probably has a guy like me in mind when he talks about interlopers and interceptors.  And I do admire what Dave’s trying to do — passing along “free” leads to his agents.

Of course, let’s take this in context — REMAX is a broker like other brokers, and the free leads you get at REMAX cost you your split (or association fee, or what have you), so they’re not really free.  I’m not saying that’s a bad thing.  Dave is a fellow mercenary, and he’s clearly more successful at mercernarying than I am.  I am, after all, a soldier of misfortune.

Now where the heck was I?  Oh yes, I love Walmart.  I got a lead, you got a car, let’s make some money!  I want to grow up to be Walmart.  I want to have Walmart’s babies.

One problem with my Walmart business model is that it relies at least in part on a third party eight hundred pound gorilla, who for any given web venture may or may not decide I’m worthy of some banana.

But hey, no job is perfect.  But in what other job could you have as much fun as I’m having now, doing what I’m doing now, dressed as I am, with the commute I didn’t have?

I may have discovered my calling.

Concord Real Estate — July 2006 Market Update

Concord’s residential real estate marekt showed some significant slowing from last year in July. Sold units were down some 41%, from 216 sold in July of 2005 to 128 in July 2006. Moreover, units that did sell took “on average exactly” (is that an oxymoron) twice as long to sell, as average days on market rose from fourteen days to twenty-eight. We should point out, however, that twenty-eight days is still not a long time as these things go, so one might say that a well priced house in Concord still moves fairly well.

The average home sold for $535,044 in July, or 99% of the average list price of $538,345. The median sale price was $525,000.

This year’s crop of homes was somewhat larger than last year’s. As a result, the 2.25% increase in the average sale price from July to July can be considered somewhat “nominal”, since the average cost per square foot declined by an almost equal amount, 2.28%, during the same time.

Inventory is getting fairly high by Bay Area standards, at 5.8 months.

Some navigation changes

I’ve just made a few changes to the site navigation to make things easier for users, and to try to get more of the important stuff up front where it belongs. The general real estate articles have been pushed further in to the site, but they’re now available through this single index, rather than cluttering up three links from the home page. Meantime I’ve also created a modest list of Oakland Area Links for your viewing pleasure. This is not everything and the kitchen sink — just a few favorites.

Walnut Creek Weirdness

The data for residential real estate sales in Walnut Creek in July 2006 are something of a puzzle.  Inventory is not too bad, at 4.4 months.  Average days on market are up from 12 to 18, but that latter number is hardly the end of the world.

The strangest thing about the numbers is that the average home size for sold homes has shrunk 27%, from 1747 square feet in July of 2005 to 1270 square feet in 2006.  As a result, we’re presented with a situation in which price per square foot has gone up 25%, while the median sale price is down by 14%!

Expireds are not especially high in Walnut Creek, with the expired to sold ratio currently at 27.8%.

The average home that sold in Walnut Creek in July 2006 fetched a hefty $570 per square foot, listing at $730,585 and selling at $723,859.  The median sale price was $672,000.

Hayward Real Estate Market, July 2006

July’s residential sales in Hayward, California has slowed significantly compared to a year ago, according to my most recent look at BayEast MLS statistics.  Ninety-eight units sold in July, down 43% from the 172 units sold last July.  At the same time, the number of listings that expired rose from 12 to 43, bringing the expired to sold ratio up from a meager 7% in July of 2005 to 44% in July of 2006.  Inventory is fairly high at 6.4 months.

The average home sold in Hayward in July for $577,778, a tad more than the average list of $576,247.  The median sale price was $572,000.

In terms of appreciation, this year’s numbers are still up slightly over last year’s. Price per square foot rose 1.9% over the period, while the average price increased 5% and the median increased 4%.

Feeding Frenzy in Fremont

OK, I admit it — sometimes I’m just too impressed by what one can do with aliteration to think things through. When I was a kid the other kids would accuse me of being aliterate. At least I think that’s what they said.

So I’m not sure if there’s really any kind of feeding Frenzy going on in Fremont, but boy it made a good title. Less poetically, one might say that Fremont’s real estate market is down like everyone else, but holding its own considering what other areas are seeing.

Appreciation from last July to this July has been low, with the median sale price up 5.03%, the average up 2.4%, and the sale price per square foot rising a mere 1.8%. And unit volume is way off, down 42% from last year’s 270 units to a total number sold this year of 157. Inventory is somewhat high by bay area standards, at 3.8 months — in other markets this would hardly be considered a disaster.

Strangely enough, however, this year’s expired numbers (26 total, 16.6% expired to sold ratio) are actually better than last year’s (47 total, 17.4% ratio). Perhaps more than anything else this points up how hard-wired the human brain is to expect regularity in the data. Sometimes the data have other ideas.

The average home sold in Fremont in July for $456 per square feet, listing for $698,901 and selling for $696,856. The median sale price was $680,000.

On Not Giving Up

Well, I’ve been blogging about Oakland and surrounding areas for some time now.  It’d be nice to see a few more requests for information or the like come through.

It’s interesting to see how much the Internet real estate landscape has changed even in the past few years.  When I started my first site for the Sacramento area, there weren’t that many Realtors® competing on the Internet — perhaps less than 50%.  Now some 70% of my colleagues have a web site of some sort.  Of course, that makes my job tougher, because my dirtly little secret (to the extent I have one) is that I want you to call off of this site.

Oh, he’s running a business!  Well, sometimes I think so, anyway.  In Sacramento I am.

Anywho, I’m sure that as I continue to write things will turn around, it’s just a question of when.  I don’t think it’s possible to have fifty gazillion pages indexed and not be on the top of all the search engine results.  Like Kirk building his cannon to fire at the Gorn, “If he has the time, Doctor…if he has the time.”

Sorry — just a bit of a whiney interlude.

Oakland’s Real Estate Bubble That Wasn’t

OK, I’m as willing as the next guy to admit when the market’s not going well. In fact, I write about it not going well a lot over in the Sacramento area, but I still manage to get some grief about not painting a dark enough picture.

You can’t please a pessimist. I guess that almost falls out by definition.

But look — pessimist, optimist, or whatever, find the bubble in the following chart of real estate prices in Oakland. Can’t do it, can you?

I know, I know, it hasn’t burst yet, right? Yeah, whatever. Maybe the market here’s just doing great!  That straight trendline is what Excel drew, by the way.  Someone call Bill Gates and tell him we’re supposed to be failing here…

July 2006 Berkeley Real Estate Market

Berkeley’s strong numbers for July 2006 continue to amaze me somewhat, but on the face of it appreciation is flat at best.  The expired to sold ratio was only up to 27.9% in Berkeley in July, these are “buyer’s market” sorts of numbers (albeit not as good as last July’s buyers super-market numbers of 9.1%).  Inventory is fairly low at only 2.3 months.

On the appreciation side, homes appreciated less than 1% on a sold price per square foot basis.  This July’s average home measured in at 1800 square feet, a good deal smaller than last year’s average of 2032 square feet — so a bearish market analyst might argue that Berkeley buyers are having to settle for less.  Because of the smaller size, the average price decreased by 10.60%, from an average sale price of of $878,033 last year to this year’s average of $784,973.

Days on market are low — indeed, lower this year than last — at an average of 21 days last June and 19 days this June.

Oakland Real Estate Market, July 2006

July’s numbers in Oakland have slowed significantly from last year, but there still appears to be strong demand for those homes that buyers consider attractively priced.  Even though unit volume sold in July was down 29% from last year (based on 347 units sold through the MLS in July of 2005 versus 247 in July of 2006), the average home that sold in Okland in July still fetched 2% more than the asking price.  (Last year, homes fetched 7% more than asking, on average).

The average home that sold in Oakland in July sold for $436 per square foot, up about 1% from last year.  The average home listed for $620,729, and the average selling price was $631,257, a 2.6% gain from last year.   The median sale price of $533,000, similarly, was up 2.5% from last year.

Expired listings have about trippled from last year’s figure of 40 total expireds in July to 125 this July, bringing the expired to sold ratio up from 11.5% last year to 50.6% this year.  Inventory currently stands at 1246 units, or 5 months worth.